Iraqi Future.

[turbacz]

Two quick points before I head for class and I'll elaborate later:

1. The idea that a civil war will occur in Iraq if the coalition pulls out is perhaps one of the most repeated fallacies.

2. Besides the left in coalition countries saying, "bring the troops home," no one else is saying where the troops will go after pulling out. Some Republicans in the US are even saying that next year we can start pulling some troops out, but this does not mean they are coming home.

My guess is that US troops will overtime be redeployed to neighboring Kuwait so that "if the shit hits the fan" in Iraq, The US will have a large force to deploy just across the border.

[Revolutionary Masses]

It could be argued that civil war is happening now, ethnic groups attacking each other as well as outsiders, some of the most bloody assults have been during religious festivals with not a coalition member in sight, obvious ethnic strife.
Indeed on a day to day basis there is more going on than places where civil war has actually been declared!

I agree on point 2 they would probably stay in the area if only to put more pressure on Iran.

[Kulikovo]

The "Coalition" Forces are the only thing standing between the Shiites and Sunnis who are killing each other. Seeing how they are stuck in the middle, that is the main reason they are attacked.

[The Red Factions]

Pulling the troops out of Iraq would give little to no justification for the existance of the current rebellion and it could very well collapse ... or survive and force Iraq down the path of "warlordism".

[Jako]

But the current rebellion comes from a variety of souces and inspirations. There are the Al Qaeda fanatics who will want to turn Iraq into an Islamist State and the Baathists who wouldn't mind a return to the old ways of Saddam. I don't see why either of these two groups would cease their struggle simply because allied troops left the country.

[Star City]

They wouldn't cease their campaigns, they'd just loose a lot of justification in the eyes of their [mild] supporters

[Jako]

But it seems to be the "current rebellion" as RF put it cannot be characterised as any united mass movement enjoying the popular support of the Iraqi people. It is instead represented by small terrorist groups who claim to be acting on behalf of their own particular religious sect / ethnic background / political ideology. There's therefore absolutely no reason for the indiscriminate attacks on Iraqi civilians, police, army and other government officials to cease just because the US, UK et al pull out their forces. These groups do not require popular support or feel the need to be justified in the eyes of other Iraqis.